In recent MMD postings there are those who have expressed concern about
the market for and the value of original Hupfeld Phonoliszt-Violinas.
To compare the market for such instruments to the foot pumped player
piano is like comparing the proverbial apples and oranges.

Remember the law of supply and demand as it relates to prices.  Like
Henry Ford's Model T, the player piano was made in vast numbers and
as a result there is a great number that still exist.  The number of
player pianos that exist is probably in the thousands.  Such pianos are
a lot of fun; in fact, I own three of them as well as two reproducing
pianos.  I also realize that there is a big supply of these instruments
out there.

In addition to supply, there are other factors impacting the player
market too.  The cost of rebuilding a player is higher today than it
was years ago due to the additional work involved.  Unless you are
lucky to find a pristine player piano which has spent its whole life in
a climate like that of Denver, the typical player piano today needs a
lot of work.

Rebuilding a player piano today in the correct way involves more work
than it did during the initial 1960's player piano revival.  In the
1960's you could recover the bellows and change the rubber tubing and
get the piano to play.  But now almost 40 years later you must do more
work to achieve a successful playing player.  You must change the
gasket leather, the pouches, the valve leather, the pneumatics, check
the soundboard crown, the piano hammers and action parts if worn etc.
If you don't do this job yourself you will have to pay quite a bit to
have it properly done because of the extensive work involved.

In recent years the purchasers of player pianos, as well as certain
common vintage cars, have seen their income squeezed.  In today's
global service economy most middle class working people are experi-
encing wage pressure and are now part of two income earner families.
Today it may be difficult to convince the wife that a player piano or
a Model T is a must since her money is being used for the purchase too!
Such pressures can impact demand.

Add to this the fact that the player and reproducing piano market has
been impacted by the advent of the computer operated player.  A new
buyer attuned to CD players and computers may find the Yamaha and QRS
system more attractive.  Thus in addition to the vast supply of old
player pianos you now have a potentially endless supply of new
instruments.  Thus you have a greater supply that could impact the
prices of players negatively.

Since there is such a large supply, a boost for player pianos from
the 'Media' could increase demand.  We need a new Jo Ann Castle on
television, or another "Sting" movie, to spur interest in the vintage
music the player pianos play so well.

On the other hand the Hupfeld Phonoliszt-Violina is quite rare.  Such
instruments appeal to wealthy people and museums who generate the
demand.  Such instruments are more comparable to a rare Mason & Hamlin
6' 2" Ampico B piano in an Italian Renaissance carved art case, or a
9 foot Steinway Duo-Art reproducing concert grand piano.  Since the
Model B Hupfeld Phonoliszt Violina in the Murtogh Guinness collection
was restored, and exposed the collecting world to the spectacular
musical ability of such instruments, the prices have only risen.  By
the way, Mr. Guinness is an heir to the Guinness liquor fortune.
People at this financial level are usually aficionados of classical
music which the Violina plays so well.

The prices for the elusive Hupfeld Phonoliszt Violanas have remained
very strong.  Just last year two sold for over $600,000.00!  One was
sold to an American collector and another was sold to a Japanese
museum.  Several have recently sold in the $400,000 range to American
buyers.  Such sales are usually quiet private sales.

Interestingly, the Japanese are second only to the Americans in
classical music recording purchases.  Thus interest in the Hupfeld
Phonoliszt Violina is a natural.

The Japanese mechanical market, by the way, is still active with over
20 mechanical music museums existing and more under construction.  This
market has evolved in the past 20 years. The Japanese buyers have
educated themselves and are now highly selective in what they buy.  In
fact, Mr. Bower's encyclopedia has been translated into Japanese!  Also
the Japanese recently formed their own MBSI chapter.  Such exposure
will keep there demand going.

Incidentally, during the 1970's when the stock market was going down,
the value of mechanical musical instruments was going up due to Mr.
Bowers stimulation of demand.  Even if the stock market flops there
will still be astute people who will have anticipated it and will have
made a fortune selling short.  These people will still be attracted to
a Hupfeld Phonoliszt Violina!

Such market discussions are fascinating.  But we must be careful not to
generalize across all mechanical musical instruments because there are
different factors affecting the supply and demand of various
instruments and thus their prices.

Tim Trager